Archive for June 6th, 2016

Rear-view mirror, poker edition: Just how bad was that bad beat?

June 6, 2016

By Matthew E. Milliken
June 6, 2016

I’ve already told you about my bad beat last week in a three-handed tournament against E.A. and B.B. But I wanted to explain just how bad a beat it really was.

As I wrote Sunday’s post, I noodled around with this holdem odds calculator. It told me that E.A.’s win probability at the hand’s start was 7 percent.

Depending on what suits B.B.’s cards were, which I don’t recall, her win probability was somewhere between about 1.2 percent if one of her cards wasn’t one of the suits I held and two-hundredths of one percent if she held the same suits I did. (Her problem in the latter case was that I had higher cards in both suits, meaning she could only win with an extremely rare straight flush, the odds of which Wolfram puts at 72,192.3:1.)

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